The 2025 NCAA Women's Basketball Tournament bracket is officially set! Selection Sunday stress is over, for better or worse, and now all of the focus is on the 68-team field still hoping to clip the national championship nets. As the First Four games set the stage, powerhouse programs make statements in the first round, and rising underdogs steal the show.

So what are the best David vs. Goliath, Minnow vs. Moby Dick matchups, and why do they matter? More importantly, who are the All-Conference stars and All-Important stats to know before the first jump ball in bracket play? Well, 5wins has the rundown.

(8) Richmond vs. (9) Georgia Tech

Is Richmond (27-6) ranked higher than a Power Conference program? Yup, and the only mid-major to make that claim. Creighton did not get that honor in the eight vs. nine matchup against Illinois. The continued upward trajectory under sixth-year head coach Aaron Roussell is undeniable. Ask Oklahoma State after they got wrapped up in the web back in November, or check the third best field goal shooting in the nation stats. This team has been dialed in all season.

Richmond had Georgetown, Alabama, and Texas on the ropes as well. The only issue is that Richmond lost momentum by not even making the A10 Conference Tournament Finals and falling to Saint Joseph’s in the semis. Still, their defense, a hallmark of Roussell’s system, ranks among the nation’s best, holding opponents to under 60 points per game and forcing turnovers with aggressive perimeter pressure. The Spiders (38.9%) are also one of the best three-point shooting teams in the tournament.

However, Richmond is 0-4 all-time after receiving NCAA March Madness invites and 0-2 against Georgia Tech (22-10) dating back to 1985. By definition, it will take a historic effort to pull off the win. Kara Dunn (15.8 points, 5.9 rebounds), Tonie Morgan (13.8 points, 5.6 assists, 4.4 rebounds), and Dani Carnegie (13.1 points, 4.6 rebounds, 1.9 assists) provide the Yellow Jackets a three-pronged sting that is very capable of cutting Richmond’s run short.

Prediction: Richmond’s winning chemistry, offensive cohesion in clutch moments, and defensive tenacity narrowly outweigh Georgia Tech’s athletic upside. The ACC’s also-ran is shooting 32.1% from three-point range, well below the national average. Look for Georgia Tech to try and deny Doogan the ball as much as possible. The Spiders will have a perfect counter in their ability to slow the pace and hit timely shots (5th best in the country from beyond the arc). That recipe should carry them to a close victory, something like 68-64.

(14) Florida Gulf Coast vs. (3) Oklahoma

FGCU players hold the bracket for the ASUN tournament.

Florida Gulf Coast (30-3) has notched wins over Power Five teams (Georgetown and Cincinnati) and suffered only one loss since November 11. They are happy to be in the field, sure, but FGCU, being stuck as a 14th seed, is selling their accomplishment this season short. The Eagles had the toughest, stingiest defense in the ASUN at 52.4 points allowed, almost eight points clear of the field. FGCU’s Emani Jefferson (13.8PPG, 3.6 APG) has the league’s best assists-to-turnover ratio and is one game away (an NCAA upset) from stardom.

Jefferson averages 13.8 points per game and 5.8 rebounds while shooting 56.7% from the field and 35.9% from three-point range. She also hounds opponents (1.6 steals) into mistakes more than she gets caught off guard. Those transition opportunities, ball-moving assists (3.6), and an ability to penetrate the paint are cornerstones of FGCU’s offense.

Another scoring option, Maddie Antenucci, adds 10.8 PPG, 3.5 RPG, and 1.6 APG while hitting 32.6% from beyond the arc. Her versatility and shifty cuts will keep Oklahoma (25-7) guessing instead of clued in on Jefferson, hopefully.

Prediction: Florida Gulf Coast is the lowest ranked team on this list for a reason. Finding a way to get Beers or Payton Verhulst (14.9 points, 5.8 rebounds) in foul trouble early will be a priority. The Eagles will make things fun, sure, but the Sooners just have too much talent and pull away late in a 72-59 thriller.

(10) Harvard vs. (7) Michigan State

The Michigan State bench celebrates during a Big Ten conference game.

Harvard (24-4) had a strong non-conference case, sporting a road win over a Top 25 team (Indiana) while handling business against lower ranked squads. They also sit 15th in the fewest turnovers committed this season. The Crimson will protect every possession after finishing third in the Ivy League thanks to some clutch moment failings. They have to, as Harmoni Turner leads Harvard in points (22.5), rebounds (5.4), assists (3.4), and steals (2.8) per game.

Everyone else must focus on defense, boxing out, and being very intentional with every touch because the Crimson Tide simply cannot shoot. Michigan State (21-9) should take full advantage. Grace VanSlooten, Julia Ayrault, and Theryn Hallock can hang with any Big 3 in the country. Jaddan Simmons, Jocelyn Tate, and Nyla Hampton’s help will determine if Michigan State makes an appearance in the Sweet 16.

Prediction: In a nod to Good Will Hunting, Harvard does not like the rotten apple results after a blowout loss. Michigan State moves on in a 71-57 dud that leaves the committee looking foolish for being so bullish on the Ivy League. Harmoni Turner helps her WNBA Draft stock by flirting with a double-double though.

(12) South Florida vs. (5) Tennessee

Tennessee players celebrate after defeating UConn on February 6, 2025, 80-76

South Florida (23-10) might be 1-4 against the Top 25, but they beat ninth-ranked Duke and are well-tested. That’s got to count for something, right? Sammie Puisis (14.8 points, 3.3 rebounds, 39.5% 3PA) and Vittoria Blasigh (10.5 points, 2.7 rebounds, 37.9% 3PA) form a respectable one-two punch capable of landing some knockout blows. Carla Brito and L'or Mputu control the boards, averaging over eight rebounds each per game. Mama Dembele sets the table (5.5 assists).

Tennessee (22-9) went 8-8 in SEC play and has failed to capitalize on opportunities from the free throw line (68.9%) all season. Jewel Spear (38.9%) and Samara Spencer (37.5%) are the three-point sharpshooters. They better be on point because the Lady Volunteers are not very good at rebounding. Only Zee Spearman (6.1) is above six boards per game.

Prediction: Tennessee lives to see another day, barely, after a low-scoring 52-49 breakfast full of nerves and second-chance points.

(8) Illinois Fighting Illini vs. (9) Creighton

Creighton players celebrate at their their selection show watch party.

We started this 5wins walkthrough with a Power 5 vs. Mid-Major, eight vs. nine matchup. That’s the way we will end. Creighton (26-6) is the 17th-best three-point shooting team in the country and earned a Top 25 ranking. Illinois is 63rd from beyond the arc, giving Las Vegas sportsbooks just enough of a margin to squeeze this showdown.

Five of Creighton’s losses were against Top 10 teams, including three to UConn and once to UCLA. The Bluejays are a bit too reliant on Lauren Jensen (17.8 points, 4.1 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 1.3 steals) and Morgan Maly (17.3 points, 5.7 rebounds, 2.1 assists) though. Molly Mogensen (9.3 points, 5.0 rebounds, 3.9 assists, 0.9 steals) needs to step up and play 35 or more very efficient minutes.

Illinois has won once since Valentine’s Day. They’ve fallen completely out of the rankings, not even getting Also Receiving Votes love. Why? Fighting Illini fans are in a frenzy. Kendall Bostic, Genesis Bryant, Adalia McKenzie, Makira Cook, and Gretchen Dolan all score more than 10 points per game after all. Well, yeah. That lineup also commits 10 turnovers per game and is below average from beyond the arc.

Prediction: This meeting is more than just a slight upset brewing. Creighton catches fire and wins by 10+ points. The Fighting Illini do not even bother to fight over the last 20 seconds, all but resigned to their elimination fate.

So there it is. The full 5wins NCAA First Round recon is complete. These first-round matchups encapsulate the essence of March Madness: the clash of titans and underdogs, the unpredictability of single-elimination play, and the emergence of new stars. With the tournament expanding to 68 teams, the stakes are higher than ever, and these games could set the tone for the chaos to come.

The action tips off on March 19-20 with the First Four, followed by the first round on March 21-22, all leading up to the Final Four in Tampa on April 4. So buckle up with 5wins for Women’s March Madness - these matchups are just the beginning of the excitement!