Predicting March Madness: Eastern Conferences
Looking ahead to the end of regular season and March Madness for the. ASUN, America East, AAC, A-10, Big South, CAA, CUSA, Ivy, MEAC, MAAC, NEC, OVC
ASUN (1 Bid)
The ASUN usually only gets one bid, but the committee will have a hard time keeping FGCU out if they do not win the conference tournament title. They have wins over Power Five teams (Georgetown and Cincinnati) and only one loss since November 11. In a more open, equitable bracket FGCU would at least get a shot through the First Four Play-In process as an at-large option if they won the regular season title undefeated.
Central Arkansas does not have the most impressive non-conference resume and has been blown out by the Power 5 schools. They have no margin for error but all it takes is one upset in the Tourney Finals to flip the ASUN’s NCAA travel plans for FGCU upside down. It’s hard to see any other ASUN squad claiming the lone bid. The Eagles and Sugar Bears squared off Feb. 20 in Conway, Arkansas, with FGCU triumphantly securing their regular season title.
They’ll also start the conference tournament in the quarterfinals. FGCU (27-3 overall) is aiming for a 12th or 13th seed with a good run, and should really be highlighting those Quad 3 wins, Getting stuck as a 14th seed would be selling their accomplishment this season short. UCA would be a 15th or 16th seed.
The upset alert is almost too obvious to ever be a trap game. Kaitlyn Costner (EKU) is capable of 20- and 30-point explosions, so they have to be included as an ASUN tourney dark horse. Bella Vinson’s Lipscomb seemingly has some fight left, depending on what night fans tune in.
Lipscomb (75.8 PPG) has the ASUN’s highest-scoring offense but allows 68.2 points per game, almost 16 points worse than the league leaders. FGCU has the toughest, stingiest defense at 52.4 points allowed. The Eagles are almost 8 points better than everyone else but about four points behind Lipscomb’s points pace. UCA is right behind FGCU in both points scored and points allowed categories.
However, FGCU’s Emani Jefferson (13.8PPG, 3.6 APG) has the league’s best assists-to-turnover ratio and is one game away (an NCAA upset) from stardom. UCA’s Leah Mafua (12.8, 2.8 APG) will try and spoil those plans, stealing the priceless reservation on the NCAA’s biggest stage.
Prediction: Florida Gulf Coast Eagles sweep the ASUN. No need to get cute here. We’ve got a long way to go before anyone is cutting nets. Still, here are there names you NEED to know before picking any 12 vs. 5 upsets this spring.
American East (1 Bid)
It’s a two-horse race in the American East. UAlbany beat Syracuse and kept things interesting in losses to LSU and Wisconsin in tough environments. Vermont beat SEC also-ran Missouri to start the season but was unimpressive in non-conference after that upset. It’s hard to see the American East getting much respect from the committee beyond a 15th seed instead of a 16th.
UAlbany and Vermont are practically tied atop the points-allowed standings with a few games remaining. UAlbany is around four points better on offense though and undefeated at home. The Catamounts have already dropped a pair in their house. With just a passing glance it seems Kayla Cooper (UAlbany) hits that one extra shot or finds that one extra pass per half that seems to elude Anna Olson (Vermont).
Kaci Donovan (34.6%), Lily Phillips (36.8%), Jessica Tomisetti (37.3%), Meghan Hunter (34.9% ), and Laycee Drake (34.5%) have permission to shoot every open three-point opportunity. They do not have time to think about it if they want to earn that NCAA bid. Vermont’s Anna Olsen and Keira Hanson cannot be underestimated.
Prediction: The Catamounts will nail their coffin by shooting under 70% from the free throw line (70.6%). UAlbany’s beat marches on at 74.5% from the charity stripe.
American Athletic (1 Bid)
UTSA (1st in points allowed) had Texas A&M and Stanford on the ropes but could not pull off the upsets. Still, they’ve handled business against a decent non-conference schedule before dispatching all comers in the AAC. Well, except one. That blemish helps the conference in a way though, but only if South Florida (2nd in point allowed) can close out the year in second place. USF might be 1-4 against the Top 25 but they beat (9) Duke and are well-tested. That’s got to count for something, right?
Meanwhile, the Mean Green got destroyed by Oregon and have been inconsistent in the AAC, losing to Tulane in some Green-on-Green-Green crime according to Texas law. League HQ is rooting for UTSA and USF to go undefeated until the conference tourney final. A 12th seed will be on the line. Anyone looking for longshot bets needs to focus on Tulane (2nd second-best offense). Watch out for the Green Wave if they get hotter than any Mardi Gras parades running through the city.
The AAC has been the Jordyn Jenkins (18.5 points, 6.9 rebounds,1.2 blocks) show all season. UTSA’s star is the only player in the top 10 in both scoring and rebounding. Being the fourth-best rim protector just seals the AAC Player of the Year title. Nina De Leon Negron, Puerto Rico’s next national team star, seems to have grown up watching Jose Alvarado fight for every loose ball. Every basketball purist should enjoy watching the Roadrunners in action.
Prediction: UT- San Antonio easily takes the regular season title as everyone else suffers losses. South Florida falls short in a bid to steal the Conference Tourney.
Atlantic 10 (2 bids)
Richmond has lost once since the Christmas break but the Spiders face a funky four-game end to the schedule. George Mason beat Wake Forest, Navy, and Georgetown while also scaring (10) Maryland, but fell two points short of beating Richmond. St. Joe’s will only get in by winning out through the conference tournament and must beat Richmond next week to stay in the regular season race.
Parity in the game is great; rising tides lift all boats after all. Sometimes that creates bottlenecks in the ports. For the A10’s crowded championship race, the logjam could cost the conference a second NCAA March Madness spot, and the payout that goes with it. The A10 PR machines need to earn some raises.
George Mason and Richmond are both deserving of a spot between the 8th and 14th seeds, depending on how the Power 5 auto bids shake out. Both would probably be favored over at least a dozen teams that are included in the bracket on a neutral court. When it comes to the committee playing favorites though, neither have truly separated themselves from the pack with undeniable, consistent blowouts that demand attention.
The Spiders (74) and Patriots (74.3) have the top two scoring offenses and top-five defenses. St Joe’s relies on defense (1st) more than offense (4th) while Davidson sits in the middle of the pack in both categories, beneficiary of some close calls throughout the season. Laura Ziegler and Mackenzie Smith lead Saint Joseph’s Mason’s more balanced attack.
Prediction: Kennedy Harris and Zahirah Walton (George Mason) versus Rachel Ullstrom and Maggie Doogan (Richmond) in the conference tournament provide some fireworks. Both get NCAA Invites. St. Joseph’s falls short, named as one of the Final Four out.
Big South (1 Bid)
Charleston Southern Buccaneers
If all breaks wrong for the Big South, their entire conference could finish with losing overall records. On a somewhat related note, these four teams are playing for a 16th seed at best. High Point could win out and they would still be in the First Four pairings. The Panthers have to consider that a small success - if they make it that far.
High Point and Longwood hold the top two spots on offense and defense. Amor Harris (Longwood) versus Aaliyah Collins (High Point) for all the marbles should be a good show for the sickos watching every game this March though. Well, if the Lancers can turn around their current skid. If not, Radford and Charleston Southern are the only viable spoilers.
Prediction: Catherine Alben averages over 20 points per game over the next month and Charleston Southern goes dancing.
Coastal Athletic (1 Bid)
North Carolina A&T can play with SMU and Rice. They were respectably competitive in a 19-point loss to in-state rival UNC. The Aggies have to own some uninspired blowout losses to round out non-conference play though. Thankfully for HC Tarrell Robinson, NCA&T gets to avoid the chasing pack to close out the regular season slate. Unfortunately, Jordyn Dorsey leads the team in scoring despite shooting 38% from the field and 21% from beyond the arc.
Someone else has to start hitting shots or there is bound to be a slip-up. Campbell has not lost a game at home (10-0), showing true come-from-behind potential. Drexel (2) and Charleston (1) have lost three games combined at home. North Carolina A&T has more home losses (2) than road (1) - just to stress the point.
Maleia Bracone (33%) and Ajia James (43%) should be getting at least two more shots each per half for NCA&T. Chaniya Clark (26%) and Paris Locke (25%) will have to earn their opportunities on the boards and through quick thinking cutting actions. The Dragons have no offensive hierarchy issues as Amaris Baker is at 18 points per game at 42% from the field (31% 3PA). Cara McCormack (33%) is streaky but a floor spacer most opponents respect, opening up space for Baker’s air traffic controller routine.
Drexel can knock Campbell out of the regular season title race when they face off on February 21. The Fighting Camels could return the favor in a rematch on the road on March 2. Charleston and Campbell meet on March 6, with stakes to be determined. Taryn Barbot and Taylor Barbot (Charleston) are quite the tandem when they find a rhythm though.
Prediction: Believe in Amaris Baker and Drexel
Conference USA (1 Bid)
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (15-1)
Liberty Flames (14-2)
Western Kentucky Lady Toppers (12-4)
Middle Tennessee has not lost at home (13-0) but only two of their remaining six are in those friendly confines. Trips to Louisiana Tech (5th), Sam Houston (7th), Liberty (2nd), and Florida International (6th) are no picnic. Ta'Mia Scott and Jalynn Gregory (MTSU) are All-Conference caliber guards but have to protect the ball (13.3 team turnovers per game) to lock in the NCAA bid.
Liberty has a different problem: One less shot to make up ground and only two games remaining at home for Bella Smuda, Emma Hess, and Asia Boone. The trio gave Tennessee a 109-93 workout and might be the CUSA’s best shot at an NCAA upset.
Prediction: Flames flame out. Middle Tennessee’s momentum hits a wall like the SEC’s actual Tennessee. The Blue Raiders fail to score 40 before finding a ride home from the dance early, bloody and bruised, but happy with the overall outcome this season.
Ivy League (3 Bids)
The ESPN Bracketology Model has the Ivy League with two bids and the third wheel relegated to the First Four Out section. Between Columbia, Princeton, and Harvard, surely someone is smart enough to figure out how to finagle the trio at the expense of other less-monied institutions - Power 5 status be damned.
Harvard has the strongest non-conference case, sporting a road win over a Top 25 team (Indiana). A two-point, last-second loss to Princeton on January 11 probably has not come up at any social gatherings. A nine-point loss to Columbia, if paired with any other further slip-up, will be what keeps the Crimson out of the NCAA’s main attraction.
The rematch against Princeton at home on February 28 is crucial to sending the committee a message. Harmoni Turner leads Harvard in points, rebounds, assists, and steals per game. Princeton has kept pace without Madison St. Rose’s 17 points per game, out for the year with an ACL injury. Ashley Chea and Fadima Tall have kept the Tigers in the mix for an at-large bid. Claiming a regular season or conference title would make things a lot easier.
Riley Weiss (17.7 PPG), Cecelia Collins (13.9 PPG), and Kitty Henderson(13.2 PPG) are scoring in the double figures, serving as the foundation of Columbia a well-balanced attack. The Ivy League is three deep this year and should be rewarded with a third big, even if a third-in-line blue blood must suffer the indignity of a 14th or lower seed.
Prediction: Someone smart figures it out. Three Ivy League teams get in. Don’t ask how. SiriAI added up these taxes.
Metro Atlantic (1 Bid)
Fairfield and Quinnipiac are on a collision course in the regular season finale. The Bobcats will host a Stags squad looking to complete the rare undefeated season. Quinnipiac is hoping for a little help so the conference title is on the line instead. Siena and Mount St. Mary’s can help play spoiler.
Kaety L'Amoreaux, Emina Selimovic, and Meghan Andersen (Fairfield) can shoot with anyone. The Stags have a problem when those three need a rest though. Quinnipiac goes four-deep with 30% or better three-point shooters (Gal Raviv, Jackie Grisdale, Anna Foley, and Karson Martin), giving them a slight upper hand in an elimination game setting.
Prediction: The Fairfield versus Quinnipiac conference tourney final comes down to five points or less.
Mid-American (1 Bid)
Ball State will be looking to bully the rest of this list over the next two weeks. The Cardinals will face Toledo, Buffalo, and Kent State with a shot to squash any ideas of someone else being worthy of the Mid-American’s NCAA bid. They beat Texas A&M handily on the road and had North Carolina and Columbia within single digits in clutch minutes back in 2024. Those reps should pay off in 2025.
Five players (Ally Becki, Alex Richard, Madelyn Bischoff, Elise Stuck, and Lachelle Austin) are scoring more than 10 points, grabbing at least two rebounds, and snatching approximately one steal per game. FIVE! That’s a deep squad ready to spring a surprise on a Power 5 school looking too far ahead.
Buffalo’s offense is Chellia Watson (20.1 points per game). Kent State has the most balanced, highest-scoring offense in the Mid-American but no one to take over a game. Toledo’s core four (Sammi Mikonowicz, Khera Goss, Kendall Carruthers, Nan Garcia) will have to get creative. Foul trouble, and drawing fouls, have been their issue. Attacking the paint is key to breaking down Ball State in the few next meetings.
Prediction: Ball State refuses to show mercy to Mid-American foes. The Cardinals run out of adrenaline in an NCAA first-round heartbreaker.
Mid-Eastern Athletic (1 Bid)
Norfolk State (22-4) is one shot away from having only three losses, all to Top 25 caliber Power 5 teams. The loss to Green Bay isn’t that bad though, as they should be in the Final 68 as well. The Spartans have a tough schedule to finish out the regular season undefeated. They visit Coppin State (Feb 22.), are at home versus Morgan State, then finish the year with a three-game road trip. The finale against Howard has title implications no matter what happens over the next two weeks.
Diamond Johnson (19.1 points, 5.8 rebounds, 4.3 assists, 3.2 steals) is worth the price of admission. Norfolk State’s star is shooting 46.1% from the field and 36.1% on three-point attempts. Cold from the free-throw line (83.1%), Diamond does not shy away from closing out games and has handles tighter than the covers on a boot camp bed.
Howard has four road games before the final against Norfolk State. Destiny Howell, Saniyah King, and Zennia Thomas will have no home-base distractions on their march toward the regular season title. Coppin State finishes with two at home, one road game, then two more home dates. The one-two punch of Laila Lawrence and Angel Jones cannot afford a mistake if they want to raise a regular season banner.
Prediction: Diamond does Diamond things. Norfolk State gets fitted for rings…but only one.
Northeast (1 Bid)
Fairleigh Dickinson (21-3) kept the non-con schedule light this year save for games against UConn, Syracuse, and Rutgers. The class of the Northeast got run out of the gym in those auditions so it’s 16th seed or bust for whoever gets the automatic qualifier spot. Freshman Ava Renninger is one game away from a transfer portal payout though. Power 5 scouts have reportedly been in the building.
Stonehill went decidedly mid with their non-con slate and still got off to a 4-9 start. Brooke Paquette should be leading the Lakers next season so this experience will be huge. Mercyhurst is listed because they are the only other team with a winning record at home. The Lakers will give one of the top two teams fits in a conference tournament game. The other will get to rest up for the finals.
Prediction: My Fairleigh Dickson gets a first-round date with a title contender.
Ohio Valley (1 Bid)
The Ohio Valley has parity but whoever emerges will be in a lambs to slaughter 1 versus 16 game to start March Madness. There is talent here, so the First Four appetizer can be skipped. Lindenwood is good enough for the main course. Tennessee Tech’s 71-40 no-show at Eastern Illinois is a bit too disgusting to overlook though.
It’s all team basketball in the Ohio Valley too. Only one player on a top-four team scores more than 15 points per game. Macy McGlone (Eastern Illinois) has hovered around 18 points per game all season; Faith Lee (Little Rock) is right at the 15 per threshold through February 17. Tennessee Tech has six players in the 9-to-13 range and Lindenwood has four.
Chloe Larry (Tenn. Tech) is a do-it-all dynamo (11.8 points, 4.6 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 1.1 steals/blocks) with an on-court demeanor that screams locker room leader. Larry is a freshman, which explains those 3.8 turnovers per game but the 38% three-point shooting helps forgive those mistakes. Lelani Ellis (Eastern Ill.) is a sensational sophomore to keep an eye on.
Prediction: Tennessee Tech has enough options at the right time and earns the bid.
Patriot (1 Bid)
Save for a four-point blip against Colgate, Lehigh has looked head and shoulder above the rest this season. They blew out Army (90-51) at home and sport a 21-point road win over Navy. Maddie Albrecht can break a press, Colleen McQuillen finds ways to stay involved, and Lily Fandre keeps knocking down shots. The Mountain Hawks have air superiority over the Black Knights here but it’s hard to count out the service academy.
Trinity Hardy is solid as a point-of-attack defender and Army will always be scrappy if nothing else. Reece Ericson (40.9%) and Camryn Tade (41.2%) can light up the scoreboard in a hurry from beyond the arc. It’s a matter of creating opportunities and extra possessions whereas the Black Knights have perhaps played things too safe this season. Only three players have more than 15 offensive rebounds all season. Crash the Boards!
Prediction: Lehigh lets everyone know who runs the Patriot League, taking home both titles.