With Selection Sunday in the rearview mirror and the first games of the 2025 March Madness tournament taking place in just a few days, the only thing on our mind is bracketology. As you make your picks, consider the following five (relative) underdogs, teams we at 5wins think have the potential to really shake things up.

Texas Christian University - How far can a two-seed go?

Seed: 2

First opponent: Fairleigh Dickinson University

Hardly a real underdog, the Horned Frogs of TCU just finished one of the best seasons in the program’s recent history. They received a No. 2 seed in the selection process after going 31-3 on the season, including 16-2 in Big 12 play. But this berth is the team’s 10th all time and first since 2010, they are just one of just two programs in the tournament within two seasons of finishing last place in their conference.

So, how far can the Horned Frogs go? For a team that has been defined by the label of “improvement,” they’re not without experience. Eight members of the roster have appeared in a total of 58 NCAA tournament games — Hailey Van Lith (17), Agnes Emma-Nnopu (13), Madison Conner (10), Taylor Bigby (6), Donovyn Hunter (4), Sedona Prince (4), Maddie Scherr (3) and Natalie Mazurek (1) — and the Frogs are perfect at home.

Could this team be a No. 2 seed that goes all the way to the Final Four, or even the finals? They don’t have an easy route. The Frogs have potential matchups with (7) Louisville, (3) Notre Dame, and (1) Texas if the seeding holds.

Arkansas State University - Defying expectations

Seed: 15

First opponent: University of Connecticut

Arkansas State will play in its first ever NCAA March Madness tournament.

While it’s unlikely that a fifteen-seed seed can get past the power of Paige Bueckers in the first round, if we’ve learned anything from Arkansas State’s 2024-25 season, it’s that anything is possible. The Red Wolves couldn’t have had a more pessimistic start to their season. They lost a huge chunk of their team to graduation and the transfer portal after last season came to an end, and preseason polls put them at No. 13 (out of 14) in the Sun Belt rankings.

So, what did they do with those underwhelming predictions? They destroyed them, and secured the program’s first-ever Sun Belt Conference Tournament trophy. But the women of Arkansas State still have a lot to prove. A-State has never played the Huskies, and they hold an uninspiring 5-9 record against Big East opponents.

They do have one secret weapon, though — head coach Destinee Rogers. She’s received praise from coaching legends like Dawn Staley and turned the Red Wolves around from a 13-win season to conference winners. With Rogers at the helm, Arkansas State may be able to continue doing the impossible.

Fairleigh Dickinson University - On a journey to make history

Seed: 15

First opponent: Texas Christian University

FDU celebrates after punching their ticket to the big dance.

In winter 2023, the Fairleigh Dickinson men’s basketball team made history when they defeated Purdue and became the second sixteen-seed men’s team (and first men’s play-in team) to beat a one-seed. They made it as far as the Round of 32, the furthest the school has ever gone. Two years later, the women’s team has a chance to run a similar course through history. The Fairleigh Dickinson knights clinched their first-ever tournament bid after beating Chicago State, and this win came off of one of the best seasons in program history. Their tournament win was their 22nd straight win this season, the longest streak in program history.

The Knights knew they were good, but maybe they didn’t know just how good. “Did I envision going 16-0 in the conference? No,” head coach Stephanie Gaitley said to NorthJersey.com after the Tournament win. “but I think the unselfishness of this team is a big part of what drove us where we are.” They hope and plan to continue surprising themselves as the tournament gets underway.

Iowa State - Can one player make all the difference?

Seed: 11

First opponent Princeton University

Audi Crooks (55) is only a sophomore but is the leader of the Cyclones

Iowa State is looking at a tough week. If they can get through their First Four game against Princeton on Wednesday, they’ll have to face six-seed Michigan 48 hours later. But, none of this is impossible, largely due to the influence of Audi Crooks. Crooks, a 6’3 center, is one of the best players in the country, who gives her all for her middle-of-the-table team. leads the Big 12 Conference in scoring, averaging 23.2 points per game and 7.5 rebounds per game.

The Cyclones have been inconsistent this season, but Crooks has remained their anchor. And, they might be heating up at just the right time. The Cyclones have won seven of their last nine games, including a major upset over Kansas State. Iowa State has struggled when it counts, though, and haven’t been able to make much of a splash against ranked opponents. Will top tier performances from Crooks be enough to push the team through the tournament? That is unclear.

Norfolk State - A HBCU not to be underestimated

Seed: 13

First opponent: University of Maryland

Norfolk State poses after winning the Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference tournament

The Norfolk State Spartans have had a historic season, one of the best in program history. Not only did they secure a third-straight Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference Tournament victory, but they also became the first ever women’s basketball team at a HBCU to earn 30 wins in one season. These massive successes were due in large part to the talents of players like forward Kierra Wheeler, guard Diamond Johnson, and guard Niya Fields.

Throughout a season with some serious competition, the Spartans rose to every challenge and kept getting better. Their NCAA Tournament berth has only energized this team as they prepare to enter their third consecutive dance. They’ll have to face No. 4 seed Maryland in the first round; an upset of this interval is not common, but if any team can pull it off, it may be the Spartans.