Predicting March Madness: Western Conferences
Who will be upset, who will be battered on opening weekend and who will still be standing?
Big Sky (1 Bid)
Marah Dykstra (13.4 points, 5.8 rebounds per game on 37.4% 3PA) should not feel incredible pressure to be ‘on fire’ for the Bobcats to have a chance in the NCAA Tournament. Esmeralda Morales (14.6 points per game, 35.6% 3PA) has stepped up as a bonafide offensive hub this season and four other players are shooting over 35% from beyond the arc.
Montana State (54th in NET Rating) must be near-great to pull off an upset though, with a consistent two-way effort. They are first in defense and second in offense. They cannot look past Northern Arizona, who will definitely bring their A-game to the conference tournament. The Lumberjacks have the best offense (80.3 points scored) but also the worst defense (71.9 points allowed) over the entire season. NAU has turned things around recently though, winning 9-of-10 to build championship aspiration-fueled momentum.
Sophie Glancey and Taylor Feldman (NAU) are streaky scorers who help each other shoulder the burdens, but sometimes it’s a bit too much ‘my turn, your turn’ to be convincing. Idaho is a top-four team in both offense and defense, making Olivia Nelson’s Vandals just scary enough to put on the Big Sky’s lookout list.
Prediction: Montana State survives a Big Scare to take home both Big Sky trophies. They’ll then scare someone like say, West Virginia, and walk away heads held high.
Big West (1 Bid)
Hawai’i has a two-game cushion with five to go and it won’t exactly be a handful of problems either. The Rainbow Wahine start the stretch run towards another Big West regular season championship with UC-San Diego at home. Then it’s UC- Davis and UC- Riverside on the road. Cal State Bakersfield and Cal State Northridge might be the worst two teams, but they do get to finish the season on the island.
Being a one-bid league, Lily Wahinekapu (Hawai’i) is shooting almost 38% from three-point range but Daejah Phillips (11.1%) will be under immense pressure to complete the double. The seniors have seen it all and should be able to handle the pressure. Hawai’i has the second-best defense and third-best offense, plus the other teams lack the firepower. This should be a Big Island breeze, right?
Well, Hunter Hernandez and Deja Lee (UC-Irvine) also get the two cellar-dwellers to build up some confidence. A 15th seed will be on the line if the top two seeds win out through the tourney final. Any slip-ups by Hawai’i would drop the Big West’s automatic qualifier to the 16th seed and First Four play-in pool.
Prediction: Hawai’i finishes strong at home to take the regular season title. UC-Irvine catches the Cold Rainbow’s End in the Conference Tournament to earn the NCAA bid.
Horizon League (1 Bid)
Cleveland State is included for the same reason as the Vandals. Mickayla Perdue is scoring over 22 points per game and some mascots just give upset vibes. They could pull off a miraculous run to the regular season titles with wins over Green Bay, Purdue Fort Wayne, and a little help.
Green Bay’s trio of Callie Genke (36%), Maddy Schreiber (46%), and Cassie Schiltz (42%) are ready-made for the NCAA tourney’s crapshoot. Natalie McNeal (13%) may need to defer the shot diet and focus on setting the Phoenix’s table for others.
Lauren Ross (48%), Sydney Freeman (35%), and Amellia Bromenschenkel (33%) pace Purdue Fort Wayne. Cleveland State is just crafty enough to pull an upset…
Prediction: …but not two. The Vikings overwhelm the Mastadons before falling to the Phoenix in the conference tournament.
Missouri Valley (2 Bids)
Missouri State Bears
Drake Bulldogs
Belmont Bruins
Murray State Racers
Illinois State Redbirds
Missouri State must navigate a brutal four-game road trip before finishing with two manageable games (Illinois State, Bradley) at home for the Missouri Valley to get a second NCAA bid - and the money that comes with it. It’s crucial for the conference’s continued rise up the ranks. Steal one from the Ivy League for Belmont or Drake! This is the best one-bid race in the country doggone it
Unfortunately, it’s probably not in the cards. Missouri State, led by tempo-controlling, full-court pressing, dime-dishing Lacey Stokes, will face every team on this list. Three will be road games in very hostile crowds looking for revenge and life in the title race. Survive that, and a conference tournament loss in the finals should not be fatal. Others would be left out though.
Drake faces only one of the top four and will host Missouri State. Katie Dinnebier (Drake) is a certified bucket. Ink her name into an All-Conference Team award sheet now. Nothing can change that at this point. Sophomore Jailyn Banks (Belmont) has breakout star potential but needs a more reliable jumper (29.5% 3PA) to match the near 90% free throw accuracy.
Murray State has eight, EIGHT, players shooting better than 32% from beyond the arc. Seven are above 34%, six above 35%. The Racers have found a groove since grinding through a tough non-conference schedule and are ready for the March Madness challenge. Their four conference defeats look far worse than the 14-point loss at LSU though, so it’s tough to see an at-large bid being available.
The same goes for Illinois State, who did not even schedule a Top 25 opponent.
Prediction: The Mizzou Va-Loo is a two-bid conference! The winner of the regular season and conference tournament gets into the NCAA’s 68-team field.
Mountain West (1 Bid)
UNLV Lady Rebels
Colorado State Rams
Wyoming Cowgirls
UNLV is a few plays away from being in the Top 25 conversation. Four losses by 18 total points to Power 5 voting receiving teams will sting if the Lady Rebels do not earn the Mountain West’s automatic bid. The one conference loss was by one point at San Diego State. However, trips to Colorado State and Wyoming remain on the calendar. Cowgirls versus Lady Rebels is even getting the FS1 national broadcast regular-season finale treatment.
Alyssa Brown does the dirty work, cleans up possessions, and shuts down drives. Kiari Jackson and Amarachi Kimpson keep the UNLV offense flowing. Meadow Rolland and Aaliyah Alexander knock down threes at an elite level. Colorado State’s Emma Ronsiek (18.2 points, 5.9 rebounds, 2.8 assists) and Hannah Simental (9.9 points, 41% 3PA) find ways to sort through problems on the fly.
Allyson Fertig (19.6 points, 10.5 rebounds) dominates everything for Wyoming working from the paint while Malene Pedersen (13.3 points, 37.4% 3PA) roams the perimeter. If styles makes fights, this is a three-ring royal rumble worth watching. Two should get NCAA bids, but the Mountain West might get shorted. No ugly losses allowed is the directive coming from League HQ.
Prediction: UNLV makes things simple for the committee. Wyoming falls short. Colorado State goes completely cold in comparison, completely ignored by the NCAA committee.
Southern (1 Bid)
UNC Greensboro Spartans
Wofford Terriers
Chattanooga Mocs
Jayde Gamble leads the Spartans but freshman Nya Smith is the spark plug that will help secure the Southern Conference bid. Smith seems to be done thinking through the actions. It’s all instinctive after two dozen games of live fire reps with UNC Greensboro’s senior-laden group.
Wofford’s starting five are all above nine points or more per game but the team is shooting 30% from three-point range. Chattanooga is worse. There is no Big Upset Energy here. THIS IS SPARTA! (300 apologies…)
Prediction: UNC Greensboro gets the Golden Ticket.
Southland (1 Bid)
SE Louisiana Lady Lions
Lamar Cardinals
Stephen F. Austin Ladyjacks
Southeastern Louisiana (22-3) has represented Hammond, America well this season. They gave Nebraska (78-68) and Houston (70-65) scares. They tricked themselves into thinking Quinnipiac would be easy and found out the hard way, at home no less. Still, 12 of their 16 Southland Conference wins have been by double digits. Senior Alexius Horne and Taylor Bell both start and finish flights, setting an example others quickly followed.
The Lady Lions are well above average at almost every part of basketball and have done well against Top 25 competition. They just cannot shoot free throws (70.5%) or three-pointers (32.4%) with any confidence. The same applies to Lamar (17-7). However, Stephen F. Austin (22-5) has a similar resume but is 71.7% from the free throw line and 37.2% on threes.
Prediction: The Ladyjacks cannot tame the Lady Lions, who shocked the world in their first game on a national stage.
Summit (1 Bid)
South Dakota State Jackrabbits
Oral Roberts Golden Eagles
North Dakota State Bison
South Dakota State Stand UP! The Jackrabbits have two Top 25 wins and were four points away (75-71) from upsetting Duke. They could get the Summit’s highest NCAA Tournament seed ever. Brooklyn Meyer (17.1 points, 5.5 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 1.9 steals/blocks) has never missed a three-pointer (1-1)...[takes a breath]...Haleigh Timmer (41.4%), Paige Meyer (37.8%), Katie Vasecka (44.7%), Emilee Fox (35.7%), and Madison Mathiowetz (37.6%) can really shoot from the logo (3PA).
Clean up the 13.2 turnovers per game and you’ve got everyone’s darling 10 over 7 pick this spring. Keep playing loose with the ball like it is change in the pocket and SDSU could lose a Summit Tourney game to Oral Roberts (20-6) or North Dakota State (16-9) easily.
Taleyah Jones (18.2 points) and Jalei Oglesby (17.7) just need one five-minute opening to get the Golden Eagles into the NCAA’s Big Dance. One 16-point run to open up an insurmountable lead due to time alone. They’ve been close to SDSU (81-76) before, so the locker room has belief. NDSU’s Avery Koenen is leading by example - and in points, rebounds, steals, and blocks. It’s hard to see either upstart surprising the favorites though.
Prediction: Was the name of that restaurant in Pulp Fiction Jackrabbit Slims? Fargo was in South Dakota, like, the State, right? Stick with the favorite here, don’t dig too deep, and memorize the classics kids.
Sunbelt (2 Bids)
James Madison Dukes
Arkansas State Red Wolves
Troy Trojans
Appalachian State Mountaineers
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers
Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns
Put your Dukes up! Where the ‘Pack at? Can the Sun Belt get a second bid? Only if James Madison (23-4) and Arkansas State (17-8) BOTH run the table to close out the regular season AND meet in the Sun Belt Conference Tournament Finals. Now, how, and more importantly who, can make that happen?
Peyton McDaniel leads JMU in points (16.3), rebounds (8.2), steals (2), and blocks (0.7). Kseniia Kozlova and Ashanti Barnes are averaging at least 10 points and seven rebounds per game, both flirting with double-doubles nightly. The Dukes lack an outside threat though (29.4% 3PA), limiting their postseason potential.
James Madison might be afforded a mistake. Arkansas State (17-8) must claim the auto bid to get in. The Red Wolves only have one 10+ points scorer (Zyion Shannon) to help make that happen. Zay Dyer (Troy), Zada Porter (App. State), Mallory Bruce (CCU), and Erica Lafayette (ULL) are lurking around looking as dangerous tournament opponents.
Prediction: James Madison and Arkansas State play another thriller at the Sun Belt Conference Tournament. A star is born and the committee cannot keep the loser away from the March Madness mayhem.
Southwestern Athletic Conference (1 Bid)
Southern Jaguars
Texas Southern Tigers
Jackson State Lady Tigers
Alabama A&M Bulldogs
Grambling Lady Tigers
The Human JukeBox must have played a bad tune for someone at ESPN. The Jaguars are on a four-game winning streak. Texas Southern has lost two straight but is still penciled in as the SWAC’s auto bid honoree in the latest projections. Jackson State is still in the mix for a sixth straight championship season. They are not alone. As 5wins previously reported, this SWAC is a literal handful right now.
Forget the algorithms. Everyone plays everyone down the stretch, sort of. Southern has the easiest path to the regular season title, playing only one top-five team. Aniya Gourdine and Soniyah Reed lead an experienced, ready-to-rumble roster. TSU might not survive a trip to Jackson State, the only SWAC squad with an unblemished home record.
Alabama A&M’s offense is fine yet sloppy (16.8 turnovers per game) and isolation-based (10.6 assists). The defense might not get off the bus (10.6 steals per game). Grambling’s Kahia Warmsley is one hot streak away from stealing away everyone’s sunshine.
Prediction: Bring the bands. Southern versus Grambling decides the SWAC.
West Coast (1 Bid)
Gonzaga Bulldogs
Portland Pilots
Washington State Cougars
A top-two seed means a spot in the WCC Tourney Semifinals, but the third team out here will have a far tougher road. Someone will be playing an extra game and have to go through both of the top two contenders to make the NCAA Tournament. No one in the WCC is getting higher than a 14th seed though.
Yvonne Ejim and Allie Turner (Gonzaga) should be invited to a WNBA Training Camp sooner rather than later. However, Portland is perhaps a deeper squad, ranking first in both offense and defense. Maisie Burnham and Emme Shearer (Portland) form a nice one-two punch that could put the Pilots over the top though.
Prediction: Gonzaga pips the Pilots.
Western Athletic Conference (1 Bid)
Grand Canyon Lopes
UT Arlington Mavericks
Tarleton State Texans
The Lopes (17-0 at home) are the WAC’s best offensive and defensive team by almost every metric. Grand Canyon fans (hey..who isn’t? It’s an American treasure!) have a right to feel like the regular season championship banner should be printed before the home finale. UT-Arlington and Tarleton State are playing for second place and a better path to the conference tourney finals.
It may not matter. Grand Canyon is beating rivals by over 20 points a game; UT-A and TSU are barely over six points to the good in point differential. That’s why Trinity San Antonio (15.5 points, 5.5 assists), Lauren Erikstrup (15.2 points, 7.1 rebounds), and Alyssa Durazo-Frescas (14.7 points, 3.1 rebounds) are playing for a 12th-seed. The Lopes are shooting almost 40% from three-point range as a team (38.8%) when you subtract a few half-court heaves.
Everyone else is in the 15-16 range, hoping for a good First Four draw. Koi Love (UTA) would get love just based on last name alone. Announcers eat that kind of stuff up during broadcasts. The 16.3 points per game help grab attention though. The Mavericks are undefeated at home (good) but on a two-game losing streak, all but killing their chances of catching the Lopes for a regular season title (bad). Oh, and Love is shooting 25.5% from deep during conference play (also bad).
Jakoriah Long (TSU) is one of the country’s most accurate long-range snipers (42.3%). Miannah Little needs more volume to be effective as the Texans are 31.4% from three collectively. Look for any elimination game opponent to swarm Long immediately. Arieona Rosborough (5.8 rebounds) and Faith Acker (5.8 rebounds) will have to clean up the misses or it’ll be lights out for their season sooner rather than later.
Prediction: Grand Canyon shows the gulf in class between them and everyone else in the WAC.