The NCAA's non-SEC Sweet Sixteen hopefuls
The holiday season is over, but the best of NCAA Women’s Basketball is just beginning to ramp up. Buy-games and neutral-site multi-team tournaments have been sorted out, for better or worse. The spring conference schedule is where contenders are separated from the pretenders. Some will graduate and move on to bigger stages (March Madness) which can catapult a program into the national spotlight. Others will lament dropped classes (lost home games) that stall progress.
Lines of demarcation were drawn through December through events like the ACC/SEC Challenge. Much like the now-defunct Pac-12 of old, half of the SEC has Elite Eight expectations. However, there will surely be some upsets this spring as programs suffer some on-court headaches that go beyond any new cross-country flight logistics. The sport’s top-end talent is getting better and more spread out by the day. Still, there are a handful of traditional powers with Final Four reservations booked.
A few others are ready to capitalize on any slip-ups as everyone looks to survive conference play. So, without further adieu, here are the 16 strongest non-SEC squads and the storylines to watch over the next three months.
UCLA (Big Ten)
1. Transfer additions Timea Gardiner (Oregon St.) and Janiah Barker (Texas A&M) have had to do a bit more after an injury to Charlisse Leger-Walker. So far, Barker has been rebounding very well and Gardiner (45.1%) has been hot from three-point range. As a team, UCLA is third in threes attempted per game (22.2) but 11th in accuracy (33.1%). It’s not exactly been a season of living by the sword, but that affinity to keep shooting is this team’s true identity. Will it prove fatal down the line?
2. Can head coach Cori Close (14th season) bring home the first NCAA title? That 1978 AIWA trophy is getting lonely. Unfortunately, UCLA has never even broken the Final Four appearance barrier and have not won a regular-season conference title since 1999. This may be the best roster ever though. Lauren Betts is MVP material and KiKi Rice (12.4 points, 3.6 assists, 37.5% 3PA) has been on a roll initiating the offense while finding spots late in the shot clock. Undefeated season loading? Well, that takes skill, luck, and a bit of depth. UCLA’s reserves are currently unproven.
3. Newcomer Elina Aarnisalo is leading the team in assists. With eight players logging more than 20 minutes per game, Five-star freshmen Kendall Dudley, Zania Socka-Nguemen, and Avary Cain are going to be on DNP-CD watch for the rest of the season. They should get plenty of mop-up duty action against non-ranked teams and seeing depth being developed in real-time is always fun for the diehards. However, there is one worrisome issue when games are close...
4. Betts leads the team in scoring but has not hit a three-pointer (0.0%) and is a coin-flip proposition (56.5%) from the free-throw line. Add in 2.9 turnovers every 27.7 minutes and that’s going to be a problem in close games. Betts more than makes up for misses though, as UCLA leads the league in offensive rebounds (16.3) per game.
Southern California (Big Ten)
5. Just watch JuJu Watkins. You’ll learn something and probably wind up smiling at the play.
6. KiKi Iraifen is second on the team in points (18.5) but has been getting pressed off the ball lately. Opponents have been letting Watkins work while making sure no one else gets involved on offense. That’s why every win against a ranked team has gone down to the wire. The only loss (74-61 vs. Notre Dame) was not close. So who will be USC’s third scoring option? Watkins and Iraifen are the only two players averaging more than 10 points per game.
7. Talia Von Oelhoffen was brought in as an insurance policy for Watkins. The freshman trio (Kennedy Smith, Avery Howell, and Kayleigh Heckel) are doing fine, but is that enough? Again, someone needs to step up as a viable third option for USC to be taken seriously. Until then, it’s just the Watkins Show while the Trojans wait for another Elite Eight heartbreaker.
8. Southern Cal and South Carolina have to sort this whole ‘USC’ thing out before the Final Four, right? Conference rivalries take priority though. UCLA and USC will face off on February 13 and March 1. There are no two more crucial contests on the Big Ten schedule.
Notre Dame (ACC)
9. Hannah Hidalgo is going for the scoring crown. Olivia Miles has five triple-doubles already. They are throwing between-the-leg bounce passes on the break and are leading the best three-point shooting team in the country. Frankly, there may not be a more entertaining backcourt.
10. Liza Karlen and Liatu King are cleaning up messes and making sure the defense is dialed in. King is averaging a double-double by doing the dirty work and Karlen has looked great since returning from a foot injury. Notre Dame looks poised to win ugly when needed. A January 5 road date with UNC will be an early litmus test.
11. Home games should be pretty sites though. Niele Ivey’s leadership is drawing sellout crowds to the arena. The Fighting Irish had a down year in 2023-24 but the foundation for a dynasty is in place. Sometimes a good crowd is worth the price of admission regardless of who is playing. It feels like that kind of season in South Bend.
12. Fans will have plenty of chances to be heard and learn some new names too. Notre Dame leads the ACC in steals and rebounds per game. They sit second in points (88.8). However, starters Sonia Citron and Kate Koval were scratched from the final pre-Christmas contest. A scrappy, uptempo pace was starting to take a toll. Adjustments anyone?
UConn (Big East)
13. Paige Bueckers is being questioned by former UConn stars. Stay tuned for a future NCAA Hall of Famer-level response.
14. Azzi Fudd is getting called out, sort of, by Notre Dame’s Hannah Hidalgo. Stay tuned for a response that will make other opponents think twice about supplying bulletin board material.
15. Actually, forget Bueckers and Fudd. Sarah Strong might be a better player now and could be a bigger star on the national stage very soon. Bueckers gets the buckets, but Strong is second in total points. The five-star freshman also leads UConn in rebounds (8.3), assists (3.6), steals (2.2), and blocks (1.5). That’s both a sign of UConn’s recruiting pull but also the lack of talent brought behind Bueckers in the last few years.
16. UConn’s time at the top seems to be over. Parity and a new wave of coaches have toppled Geno Auriemma. Former players are challenging UConn’s established stars. Auriemma is 3-2 against AP Top 25 teams this season. UConn beat North Carolina, Ole Miss, and Louisville but looked shockingly flawed in losses to Notre Dame and USC. Will Geno go gently into that good night or add a few frustrating technical fouls along the way?
Maryland (Big Ten)
17. Brenda Frese already switched up the starting lineup once. Saylor Poffenbarger won over the head coach with effort plays, meaning Christina Dalce had to move to the bench. Frese’s move could be taken as a reward for Poffenbarger or a reprimand for Dalce.
18. Kaylene Smikle is good for at least one 20-point game per week and plays an outdoor blacktop type of game. She is using non-stop action to average 17.7 points, 3.6 rebounds, and 1.4 steals per game. Maryland might not win the big games, but Smikle is a good bet to win over the most fans.
19. Maryland might have 10 new players but they’ve united behind a common goal quickly. Shyanne Sellers was “fearless” in a win over Duke and has been making sure the team stays together during those midgame huddles. Her communication has been keeping everyone on the same page.
20. Bri McDaniel is the X-Factor every other team wishes they had on the roster. Going to McDaniel led directly to a conference-opening win over Purdue. It won’t be the last time she saves the day.
Ohio State (Big Ten)
21. Ohio State missed their first six shots and still beat Stanford (84-59) in San Francisco. Their vice-grip pressing has pushed several teams past the breaking point already. Expect even the best of the Big Ten to have trouble passing through OSU’s zone-trapping schemes.
22. Jaloni Cambridge (shoulder) will have a hard time winning the starting spot back from Madison Greene. Ohio State is playing too well to upset the apple cart now, right?
23. Cotie McMahon (18.3 PPG) is consistent on the court but has missed games while admittedly trying to grow into a leadership role. Becoming more comfortable and naturally less hesitant in the spotlight is the last step to becoming the next household name.
24. Ohio State takes the most shots but it’s hard to see them playing from behind. Their mediocre three-point volume and overall success rate per shot put a cap on the season.
Kansas St. (Big 12)
25. Starting center Ayoka Lee (17.3 PPG) and guard Zyanna Walker (5.0 APG) have developed a connection. Can they shoulder all of the offensive burdens in close games though? Tired legs make mistakes that Kansas St. cannot afford. That’s already been proven this season.
26. Serena Sundell (12.6) and Temira Poindexter (12.0) are picking up the scoring slack but a lack of offensive rebounding is a concern. Finding extra possessions has been difficult so far. It has not been a big problem, yet, thanks to two sharpshooters.
27. Taryn Sides (52.9%) and Jaelyn Glenn (40.8%) are giving the Big Four plenty of room to operate thanks to some outstanding three-point shooting. If they cool off, look for defenses to collapse on Lee and double-team Walker more often. Kansas St. should keep moving up the rankings though because...
28. Jeff Mittie’s squad protects the ball, coughing up the second-fewest (11.9) turnovers per game. They also play disciplined defense, committing the fewest fouls per game while dishing out the most assists and making the most shots. It’s just an attractive brand of basketball.
TCU (Big 12)
29. Hailey Van Lith (19.1 PPG, 6.5 APG) made another transfer portal hop after a stint with LSU. Initially with Louisville, Van Lith has been looking for the right environment to showcase WNBA-level talent. So far it’s been all bridesmaid and never the bride casting for HVL. Angel Reese and Caitlin Clark have moved on from the NCAA scene. Will TCU capitalize on Van Lith’s first, last, and only last ride around a Big 12 schedule?
30. Seniors Sedona Prince (17.9) and Madison Conner (16.6) give TCU a three-pronged attack that should keep the teams from only focusing on Van Lith. The crafty Conner (4.6 RPG) rebounds at a far better rate than most 5-foot-11 guards. TCU needs the help clearing the boards too. Prince (6-foot-7) is the only rim protection on the roster. Watch how teams attack Prince, who has been avoiding fouls more while swatting 3.8 shots per game.
31. Conner averaged a league-leading 28.5 points along with 5.5 rebounds and 4.5 assists per game in the week before Christmas. The Big 12 Player of the Week award was sitting under the tree in recognition. TCU’s record holder for 30-point games is finding a way to work with, instead of around, Van Lith after a slow start. Thankfully, the January schedule is just what the doctor ordered for building chemistry and stacking wins
32. TCU is a fringe Top 10 going into the new year. They should remain in that range until February too. All eyes will be on a February 5 trip to Kansas State for TCU’s first test against a ranked conference foe.
West Virginia (Big 12)
33. The Mountaineers top the Big 12 charts for Team Steals (14.7). Other contenders do not even come close. What West Virginia does with those extra possessions is a wholly different issue. They commit the fifth-most turnovers (16.4) and grab the fifth-fewest rebounds (36.4). It can be a maddening experience for anyone watching.
34. JJ Quinerly (17.5 PPG) can score but does not do much else to fill out the stat sheet. The three-point shot is still off (30.6%) as well. Somehow, Quinerly was a unanimous selection to the Big 12’s Coaches Preseason All-Conference team. West Virginia’s star has been a one-dimensional threat so far.
35. Getting to the free-throw line is crucial. WVU (21.9) is behind Cincinnati for the lead in attempts per game. They are sixth in points per game though. Winning snoozefests from the charity stripe is a recipe for success but not one that will bring in many fans. And once those refs stop calling touch fouls...
36. West Virginia, TCU, and Kansas St. will battle for the regular season and tournament titles. Iowa State and Baylor are dark horse candidates. No other Big 12 team looks to be close on talent alone. The Mountaineers feel like the team most likely to crash out instead of contend though. How will they change that narrative?
Michigan (Big Ten)
37. Michigan’s fouling and turnovers are both fourth-worst to start league play. They are the worst at protecting the rim (2.4 blocks per game) and 12th in assists(16.6). Calling the Wolverines talented but individually focused seems harsh…until you watch them play.
38. Olivia Olsen (15.7), Syla Swords (15.3), and Jordan Hobbs (13.2) split the points pretty evenly but they do not share the ball. The trio accounts for just 7.8 assists per game, less than two per quarter! Mila Holloway gets extra credit for being 25% of the team’s total assist. Everyone else's contribution feels incomplete at best.
39. Rebounding (43.8 per game) at an elite level has kept Michigan’s Top 25 streak alive. However, they are two bad games away from being in the ‘Also Receiving Votes’ section. Those tests come quickly in the new Big Ten too...
40. The first three conference games (@USC, @UCLA, vs. Ohio State) are brutal. At least that early stress test will give Kim Barnes Arico a better sense of just how close this roster is to competing for a conference title.
Michigan State (Big Ten)
41. Michigan State gets to the free-throw line (26.4 FTA) and makes the most of the opportunities (18.7 FTM). They are the best in the Big Ten in both categories and will look to keep games close with a slower, more physical style.
42. Grace VanSlooten is averaging 14.4 points, 7.7 rebounds, 1.5 steals, and 1.4 blocks per game. ESPN will not clip many of those plays for highlights, but coaches at all levels will use them in clinic demonstration videos. The 6-foot-3 phenom just keeps using fundamentals, and Michigan State keeps winning.
43. Julia Ayrault (16.6) leads the way in scoring but this team spreads the love. Five players average more than two assists per game. As a team, Michigan State is second overall in assists. The team may play slowly but the ball keeps moving.
44. Michigan State’s stock keeps rising too. Robyn Fralick became the first in program history to reach the NCAA tournament in their first season. Reaching the second round of both the conference and NCAA tournament would be substantial progress for a program in need of a new direction.
North Carolina (ACC)
45. Lanie Grant gave up a senior year in high school to enroll early. UNC is glad she did after Grant earned freshman of the week honors. Watching the youngest player in the division dice up seventh-year seniors will always be satisfying for the old-school purist.
46. Eight players have led the team in scoring. They also have the eighth-fewest turnovers (11.2) in the nation. Courtney Banghart approves. Coach Banghart does not appreciate those slow starts against UConn and Georgia Tech. The Tar Heels took those lessons to heart going by their current winning streak though.
47. Maria Gakdeng’s work as the offensive hub and defensive paint protector is something to track. The more UNC can move Gakdeng around on offense, the better. The more opponents have her moving around the perimeter on defense, well, that has not gone well.
48. Sure, 10 players average more than four points. None average more than 11 going into conference play. Sharing the ball is wonderful but the lack of a go-to scorer is apparent, especially in close games and late in the shot clock.
Duke (ACC)
49. Toby Fournier is a young, talented wing ready for a bigger stage already going by the 20-point games against good competition. The WNBA will have to wait for Fournier’s highlight dunks, though. Carrying Duke through conference play and past the second round is the next obstacle for the future star. Dunking in an ACC game would bring more eyeballs to the game than a Caitlin Clark three-point, arguably.
50. Reigan Richardson is being asked to step into the leadership role vacated by Celeste Taylor and Shayeann Day-Wilson. It's the next step for Richardson, who was named to the 2023-24 All-ACC Second Team. She showed up in a big way last year, becoming the first Duke women's basketball player since Alana Beard to register back-to-back NCAA Tournament games of 25-plus points. Now it’s about performing to that level every night.
51. Ashlon Jackson was huge in a win over Kansas State. Can Duke count on THAT 43% from three-point range Ashlon Jackson every night? She has taken a huge jump as a junior but there is still something missing with this team.
52. Perhaps it’s just mistakes that need to be cleaned up. Turnovers and lackadaisical defense led to a deflating loss to USF weeks after the same issues cropped up against South Carolina. Kara Lawson has to find a way to keep an inexperienced team focused on the small details.
Georgia Tech (ACC)
53. Georgia Tech jumped to 13th in the last 2024 Associated Press Top 25 Poll. They are still undefeated and on the brink of their first top-10 ranking in program history. Will it all fall apart in the conference opener against Pitt? Not if their league-leading assist (18.5 APG) numbers are any indication of future success.
54. Freshman phenom Dani Carnegie only knows winning and has won the past two ACC Rookie of the Week awards. Carnegie is averaging 14.5 points (43% field goal) and 5.3 rebounds per game, proving to be one of the most effective, immediate game-changers in the country. Can Carnegie keep going and upset some of the more hyped-up names in the ACC?
55. Kara Dunn is fouling less and committing fewer turnovers so did she turn an All-ACC Team corner this summer?
56. With three wins over ranked opponents already, Georgia Tech is well-positioned to get a top-6 seed in the NCAA Tournament. The Yellow Jackets just have to not get stung by any ACC also-rans along the way or head coach Nell Fortner might need to refresh the resume. The progress made since 2019 is negligible at best. In fact, the program has stalled out since that Sweet Sixteen berth in 2021. Fortner has a sub-.500 conference record since taking the job.
Iowa (Big Ten)
57. Hannah Stuelke’s improvement at the free throw line is already earning headlines in the local papers. Will that form hold up when the pressure ratchets up? Fans know not to question the sophomore’s heart after a great start to the season. Stuelke has been leading Iowa despite playing through minor yet nagging injuries.
58. Lucy Olsen (18.6 points, 5.6 assists) is not quite Caitlin Clark but Iowa fans are still getting a good value for the ticket price. Those cornfields are going to be frozen over until baseball season begins. Olsen is the best reason not named Stuelke to wander into a Hawkeyes gym for a region lacking professional sports.
59. Taylor McCabe, Teagan Mallegni, and Taylor Stremlow have to bring the energy when Olsen and Stuelke get stuck. The trio has been very hit-and-miss to start the season.
60. Turnovers are the biggest reason those fans will go home unhappy. Iowa had 30 turnovers in a loss to Tennessee. Using Ava Heiden out of the post has not been a priority. Perhaps that changes to give the perimeter players a different look.
California (ACC)
61. Cal is living and dying by the three-pointer. They are second in attempts (27.2) and third in success rate (38.6%). They also get to the free-throw line but fail to take advantage (69%). Cold shooting nights will lead to calamity. One hot night could lead to a momentum-shifting win though.
62. Lulu Twidale is leading the team in minutes played. The sophomore is leading a youth movement that Cal ranked for the first time in a while. Can they continue winning once ACC play starts? Charman Smith needs to post a winning record soon.
63. Fortunately, investments into senior transfers Ioanna Krimili and Kayla Williams have given Cal a big boost. However, finding who will step up in their place next season is all part of the process for a team full of uncertain futures and haphazard play.
64. Committing the most turnovers (18.1) per game in the ACC is a good way to drop off of this list and every poll. That is where Cal is at going into conference play. Coach Smith will have a hard time convincing the board of trustees to extend the contract at this rate.