It’s the ACC showdown that fans didn’t get to see during the regular season, pitting conference newcomers and no.1 seed Stanford against ACC staple no.2 seed Duke. Both teams suffered a semifinal exit in last year’s College Cup. Both teams are looking to give the other team a repeat experience in the 7:45pm semifinal on Friday. Below is a recap of how Stanford and Duke got here, the keys to the game, and a score prediction.

Stanford’s Path to the College Cup

It’s been, another, historic season for Stanford. They are five goals away from becoming just the fourth team in the 21st century to score 100 in a single season. The Cardinal’s first round matchup with Cal Poly was the closest with a 3-1 scoreline. Stanford has since obliterated their opponents with a 7-3 win over Alabama, a 6-0 rout of BYU, and a 5-1 victory against Michigan St. to earn their semifinal spot. Stanford has 95 goals to their opponents 23 and has three goal scorers in double digits.

The offensive core of Stanford in Jasmine Aikey, Eleanor Klinger, Andrea Kitahata, and Allie Montoya can score in buckets, aided by Charlotte Kohler’s brilliant passing. The Cardinal move the ball, playing fast and looking for through balls to set up one of the forwards with a one v one situation. Ruthless, Stanford looks to create overloads and plays in transition, though usually that transition only goes one way: towards the opponents net. It’s not all offense and no defense, it’s just that Stanford believes that they’ll always score at least one more goal than their opposition. So far, that assumption has only been incorrect three times in 23 games.

This Stanford team is better than last year's. They return nine players who have played in a National Championship game. Crucially, they’ve lost a game this season, important in providing motivation and the sometimes needed reminder that no team is undefeated. Stanford won the ACC Championship in penalty kicks, giving them practice if Duke manages to stretch the game 110 minutes. Paul Ratcliffe has been masterminding this moment for two years now. As far as Stanford is concerned, this is the moment all those almosts have been leading to.

Stanford’s Keys to the Game

For the Cardinal, it’s all about utilizing the heartbreaks of the past two years, relying on the experience and memory of those post seasons as fuel in their attempt to complete one of the most dominant seasons in recent memory. It’s trite, maybe, to tell a team to not overthink their approach to a National Semifinal, but with 95 goals on the season, Stanford just needs to play Stanford soccer–if that means not keeping a clean sheet, so be it.

Kansas City will be freezing, which makes it hard for both teams to use their athleticism and run. Stanford needs to play as if the weather isn’t a factor, leaning into their athleticism and challenging Duke’s physicality. For all intents and purposes, Stanford is in complete control of this match and should play like it: collected, as a team, in the style that’s gotten them this far. Acting frazzled, trying to force offense, trying to outthink the weather, or spending too much time on trying to maintain a clean sheet generates too much noise. Why not just have fun and get to 100 goals with a game to go?

Duke’s Path to the College Cup

Immovable defense meets unstoppable offense. The Blue Devils have yet to concede in the 2025 tournament, beating Elon 3-0, UCF 1-0, Kansas 2-0, and Washington 3-0. While not the football scores of Stanford, scoring more than one goal in three of their four games demonstrates Duke’s balanced approach to both sides of the ball. They’ve scored 55 goals on the season and conceded only 21.

The Blue Devils have five starters returning from last year’s semifinal exit. They’ve also returned Kieran Hall, this time as their head coach, promoting him from associate head coach with Robbie Church retiring. It has not been a perfect season for Hall, but those imperfections mean the Blue Devils are battle tested and workshopped, a team that knows what evolution can bring and are familiar with adjusting, finding ways and players to win.

The catch? Last year coming into the semifinal game, the Blue Devils also had yet to concede a goal. That streak was snapped in their 3-0 loss to North Carolina. Arguably, being the underdog helps here as there is less pressure to maintain that perfection against offensive powerhouse Stanford. The Blue Devils want to score first, force the Cardinal to feel the weight of their no.1 seed and that 100 goal benchmark. Ultimately, and this might be a cop out, the regular season doesn’t matter here, so Duke should feel free to take the parts of their season that served them, the lessons in coming back and weathering the storm, and play to the game in front of them–without a single memory of last year.

Duke’s Keys to the Game

Let Mia Minestrella be Mia Minestrella. Find her in the big moments because she’s had an absolutely massive national tournament. Of course, Stanford will mark her. Of course everyone will be looking at her in those big moments, but Minestrella has been brilliant so let her continue to be brilliant.

Lean into the underdog, resiliency narrative. It’s cold. Stanford can score from anywhere. So what? Duke has made it this far by sticking to their identity, relying on experience, and staying the course when things took a dip in the middle of the season. Control the midfield, allowing Stanford to play in the back without being able to find through passes that open the field up. If the Blue Devils take the space from Stanford and eliminate the initial pass, it should be enough to allow them to take chances in Stanford’s attacking third, demonstrating Duke’s own formidable offense.

5Wins Pick: 3-2, Stanford