• Duke women’s basketball surges in ACC play: The Blue Devils are 8–0 in the ACC, riding a 10-game winning streak, ranking No. 17 in the NET and No. 21 in the AP Poll, with a dominant +20.8 scoring margin and a marquee win over then–No. 18 Notre Dame.
• Early-season struggles fueled Duke’s turnaround: After a tough 3–6 nonconference start against elite opponents like UCLA, South Carolina, and LSU, Duke used those losses to build chemistry and resilience, translating experience into consistent conference wins.
• Stats show consistency, wins show growth: While Duke’s core statistical profile remains steady, improved shooting, rebounding, and late-game execution in ACC play highlight a team that’s learned to grind out close wins ahead of a pivotal matchup with No. 8 Louisville.

Duke women’s basketball are 8-0 in ACC play, no.17 in the NET rankings, and entered the Associated Press Poll at #21 this week. The Blue Devils haven’t lost in 10 games and have a 20.8 scoring margin in conference play. They have a win over then-#18 Notre Dame. It’s been an impressive–and consistent–month and a half of basketball.

But the Blue Devils started the season 3-6 with losses to LSU, UCLA, South Carolina, South Florida, and West Virginia. The season opened with a six point loss to then #18 Baylor. These weren’t all close losses either. Duke lost those six games by an average of 15 points, including a 30 point drubbing by no.3 UCLA.

So, is the ACC not competitive enough? Or, did the early struggles in chemistry help the Blue Devils find their rhythm?

Statistically, Duke improved their shooting average and rebounding percentage while lowering their opponents. Overall, Duke averages 75.68 and keeps opponents to 61.16 points per game, but in the ACC that number climbs to 78.25 while limiting opponents to 57.5.

The same thing happens with average rebounds per game: the Blue Devils averaged 40.5 overall while climbing slightly to 41.1 in ACC play. Opponents went from 35.7 to 33.9 once the ACC slate began.

Did Duke actually improve or did the competition suddenly become weaker? Well, using Notre Dame as a case study, the Blue Devils outrebounded by six and outscored by 14, which is inline with the ACC rebounding averages but falls scoreline wise in with the overall season. The competition, with Notre Dame at least, stayed consistent, but Duke played better basketball than they had previously.

All other stats that might point to a different Duke team have instead stayed roughly consistent between the conference and non-conference. The Blue Devils are averaging the exact same difference in steals per game (six more than their opponents) and roughly equivalent differences between personal fouls and turnovers. Duke commits an average of 1.44 personal fouls less than opponents in ACC play (1.19 less overall). Similarly, the Blue Devils average 1.23 less turnovers per game than their opponents in the ACC compared to 1.13 less than their non-conference opponents.

The stats seem to say that the 3-6 Blue Devils are not playing statistically different basketball than the 8-0 Blue Devils.

There are, of course, the intangibles to consider. Losing repeatedly to ranked opponents can provide better motivation than winning easily. Audi Crooks made headlines for saying no one wants to play their best basketball until March, which is likely what Duke was thinking when scheduling a difficult start to their season.

It’s also experience. Basketball is a long season and the rough nonconference start doesn’t have to hurt Duke if they continue to play close to perfect basketball in the ACC. A deep tournament run in the tournament means Duke would certainly have to play at least one of the teams that beat them early in the season. There’s no guarantee, of course, that having experience with a team can make a second matchup. But the Blue Devils would have prior exposure and a chip on their shoulders.

Lawson also coached Team USA at the FIBA Americup in the summer of 2025.

Perhaps while not a statistically better Duke team, it is a Duke team that knows how to recover from a turnover better. Certainly, the returning players have seen these ACC teams many, many times. Duke’s getting a little more from both their starters and from their bench players.

Duke scheduled tough, weathered the storm, and now has a ranked win under the belts. Playing in the ACC helps–as long as Duke takes care of business, which so far they have. The Blue Devils play consistent basketball winning or losing. The key difference entering ACC play has been that suddenly, Duke is winning close games. They can hoop, but mostly, they grind out wins.

The next marquee matchup is against also undefeated in conference play Louisville, currently ranked eighth nationally. Plenty can change between now and the February 5th meet up but at the moment, the match up looks like a meeting between the up-and-up Blue Devils and a consistent Louisville. It should be a test of how much Duke has learned from their non-conference growing pains.