5wins NCAA Women’s Sweet Sixteen March Madness Matchup Meter
5wins predicts which teams will move onto the Elite Eight
Chalk? What chalk? Oh, those chalk outlines of dead seasons? Just step over them, unimpressive as they may be. While some critics are crying about a lack of upset over the first two rounds of NCAA action, others see the beauty in the best teams getting a few warmup games before the National Championship pressure ramps up exponentially.
The first four dozen games of the tournament delivered in different ways, starting with the first four mini-bracket’s nailbiting action.
Let’s move to the full meal of Sweet Sixteen matchups as these eight games have everything a hoops fan would want, minus JuJu Watkins. Unfortunately, the Southern Cal freshman’s ACL injury has put a small damper on what is largely a silver platter overflowing with storylines.
Star power, historic rivalries, and championship aspirations. From TCU’s showdown with Notre Dame to UCLA’s clash with Ole Miss, the war for Elite Eight spots will be fierce. Here’s a dive into each team’s 2024-25 season, their path to the Sweet Sixteen, and the key players driving their success.
Friday, March 28
(2) Duke vs. (3) North Carolina -2:30 p.m. ET on ESPN
Research Triangle’s Historic Rivalry Renewed
Duke Blue Devils: Duke’s 2024-25 season culminated in an ACC Tournament title, with a balanced attack led by Ashlon Jackson (14.9 PPG) and Oluchi Okananwa’s breakout performances. Kara Lawson’s squad held opponents under 40% shooting in key wins, showcasing their defensive grit. They advanced past Lehigh in the first round and edged Oregon in the second, relying on clutch scoring and tenacity to set up this rivalry clash.
They almost got caught looking past Oregon in anticipation of another UNC clash. Ashlon Jackson (20 points) kept the upset-minded Ducks at bay. Oluchi Okananwa was huge in picking up the Toby Fornier (illness) slack, but the rest of the supporting cast lacks a knockout punch. The alumni base is losing finger nails fast as no lead feels safe with Duke right now. Thankfully, Fornier (13.4 PPG, 5.2 RPG) should be back for the Sweet Sixteen
Fans are feeling pretty good about the new direction under Lawson. This is the first time Duke has advanced to the Sweet 16 in back-to-back seasons, appearing in four straight Elite Eights under former coach Joanne McCallie. That run ended in 2013.
North Carolina Tar Heels: North Carolina’s 2024-25 season featured a strong ACC run, with Maria Gakdeng, Alyssa Ustby, Lexi Donarski, and Reniya Kelly’s versatility driving the offense. The Tar Heels overcame Oregon State in the first round and then outlasted West Virginia, leaning on their experience in tight games.
However, North Carolina might be in a bind regardless of Toby Fornier’s health. Indya Nivar, Lanie Grant, Trayanna Crisp, and Grace Townsend have gone cold from beyond the arc. The foursome is a combined 26.7% from three-point range in 2025.
Prediction: Toby Fornier, the ACC Freshman of the Year, knocks off the rust quickly. UNC’s late run falls short and Duke moves on. (82-75)
(1) South Carolina vs. (4) Maryland - 5:00 p.m. ET on ESPN
Dawn Staley Makes Statue Case
South Carolina Gamecocks: South Carolina earned a share of the SEC’s regular-season crown, though losses to UCLA, Texas, and UConn exposed rebounding weaknesses (42.5 RPG). Still, Dawn Staley is making a great case for a statue-worthy legacy after turning around a once-dormant program. Another Final Four run would be another feather in that legacy-heavy cap. It’s up to Chloe Kitts and Ashlyn Watkins to help fulfill that prophecy.
Kitts (10.1 PPG, 7.9 RPG) and Watkins (7.2 PPG,6.1 RPG) have stepped up inside to fill the vacuum left by Kamilla Cardoso. The Gamecocks crushed Tennessee Tech but barely edged Indiana, relying on depth to reach the Sweet Sixteen.
Maryland Terrapins: Maryland's 2024-25 campaign featured a thrilling 111-108 double-overtime win over Alabama in the second round, following a victory over Norfolk State. However, it has required more than a small dose of resilience from Shyanne Sellers (14.5 PPG, 4.1 APG, 41.3% 3PA) for the Terrapins to survive this long. Kaylene Smikle (18 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 1.6 APG), Bri McDaniel (10.6 PPG, 2.1 RPG, 2.4 APG, 1.1 SPG), and Sarah Te-Biasu (10.6 PPG, 1.9 RPG, 2.6 APG, 45.1% 3PA) are being called up for career-high nights in what will surely be a fight to the finish against the Gamecocks.
Prediction: This game pits Maryland's grit against South Carolina's juggernaut, with Staley's championship experience facing a stern test from an underdog. Joyce Edwards and MiLaysia Fulwiley ensure Dawn Staley’s championship goals in South Carolina remain possible. (81-68)
(2) NC State vs. (3) LSU - 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN
Road-Tested Wolfpack Meets Untamed Tigers
NC State Wolfpack: NC State’s 2024-25 season built on last year’s Final Four run, with Aziaha James (18.1 PPG) and double-double machine Saniya Rivers’ playmaking (11 assists vs. Michigan State) leading the charge. The Wolfpack shot their way to the Sweet Sixteen, hitting 15 threes in a rout of Michigan State after easily brushing off Vermont, proving their perimeter game remains elite despite some roster turnover.
Zoe Brooks, Madison Hayes, and Zamareya Jones will have no more nights off on the road to Tampa. Taming the LSU Tigers will take a bit more focus. NC State is coughing up around 12 turnovers per game. Kim Mulkey’s minions will be ready to take full advantage of an easy meal.
LSU Tigers: Kim Mulkey’s squad roared through 2024-25, with Flau’jae Johnson (18.8 PPG) and Aneesah Morrow (18.5 PPG) forming a dynamic duo post-Angel Reese. The Tigers demolished San Diego State and Florida State, becoming the first team since 1988 to score 100+ in consecutive tournament games. This matchup tests LSU’s youthful firepower against NC State’s veteran poise, with Mulkey’s championship pedigree on the line.
Flau’jae Johnson, Aneesah Morrow, and Mikaylah Williams might be the best fitting Big Three in the country. The problem has been on-court chemistry, as evidenced by Johnson’s in-game spat with Mulkey in the third quarter against Florida State. Kailyn Gilbert and Mjracle Sheppard had to work with those frustrations in front of a home crowd. Frankly, while Baton Rouge has big dreams of another title, their emotions have yet to travel well. Texas, Ole Miss, Alabama, and South Carolina were able to use that against the Tigers during SEC action.
Prediction: It’s better to show fight than to silently lick wounds. LSU has the best three-point defense (26.6%) among those left in the bracket. The Tigers scratch and claw their way to a 10-point win despite an off night shooting-wise. (75-65)
(1) UCLA vs. (5) Ole Miss - 10:00 p.m. ET on ESPN
NCAA Tournament’s Last Unboring Blowout
UCLA Bruins: UCLA earned them the No. 1 overall seed, with Lauren Betts (32 points, 14 rebounds vs. Richmond) and Kiki Rice dominating for the past six months. They crushed Southern and Richmond, leveraging a 29-7 third quarter in the second round to reach the Sweet Sixteen for the third straight year.
It’s a pick-your-poison problem when trying to stop the Bruins. Betts and Rice are WNBA-caliber threats. Gabriela Jaquez, Londynn Jones, Timea Gardiner, Angela Dugalic, and Janiah Barker are putting up between 7-10 points each every night. UCLA does not rely on pure offensive talent alone either. They are holding opponents to 35.3% shooting from the field, sixth best in the nation.
Ole Miss Rebels: Ole Miss features a balanced attack (five players 9+ PPG), led by Madison Scott, Starr Jacobs, and Kennedy Todd-Williams. They beat Ball State and Baylor but may be in line for a wake-up call against UCLA. Sira Thienou, KK Deans, and Tameiya Sadler will have to be lights out from three-point range to spring the upset. The trio has been inconsistent all season though, going on multi-game hot streaks before cooling back off to below average (31%-36%) beyond the arc.
Prediction: UCLA’s size and Betts’ dominance suggest a lopsided affair, despite the Rebels’ grit. (81-62)
Saturday, March 29
(2) TCU vs. (3) Notre Dame - 1:00 p.m. ET on ESPN
Horned Frogs vs. Heartland’s Golden Standard
TCU Horned Frogs: The 2024-25 season marked a breakout year for TCU, finishing with a 16-2 Big 12 record and claiming the conference tournament title. Hailey Van Lith, revitalized after transferring from LSU, has been the catalyst with her explosive scoring and leadership. Sedona Prince has dominated the paint, contributing double-doubles on a nightly basis while swatting a handful of shots as a side hustle.
Madison Conner (15 PPG) rounds out a dynamic Big Three lineup. TCU’s path to the Sweet Sixteen included a first-round rout of Fairleigh Dickinson and a revenge-fueled 85-70 win over Louisville in the second round, showcasing their high-octane offense and some newfound confidence by the supporting cast.
However, coach Mark Campbell only goes five deep, basically. Two reserves got to play six total minutes in a 15-point win over the Cardinals as the starters went the distance. Hailey Van Lith, Sedona Prince, and Madison Conner have been punching in for over 30 minutes a game. Six players logged more than 21 minutes a game this season. Aaliyah Roberson (13) and Una Jovanovic (11) got about a dozen.
Everyone else fought for a handful of scraps at best. Watch for TCU’s tired legs to come into play eventually.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish: Notre Dame entered 2024-25 as a bonafide one-seed conversation title contender but stumbled late, losing three of the last four against ranked opponents. However, the Irish have regained their swagger in the NCAA Tournament, leveraging a 13-day break after the ACC semifinals to reset. All-World wonder Hannah Hidalgo has been electric, averaging 24.2 points and shooting 40.7% from three, while Olivia Miles complements her with 15.2 points, 5.9 rebounds, and 5.8 assists per game.
Liatu King attracts attention down low to create space and grabs any misses (11.4 PPG, 10.4 RPG) by the stars. That foundation made it relatively easy for Notre Dame to cruise past Stephen F. Austin in the first round. The Fighting Irish then dismantled Michigan in the second, proving their backcourt trio (do not forget Sonia Citron, especially around the arc) can overwhelm any defense.
Prediction: Notre Dame won the Midwest bragging rights over Big Blue. It was more of an institutional thing given the history between the two. This is more Van Lith’s redemption arc against Hidalgo’s relentless brilliance in a must-watch showdown. Hailey over Hannah, thanks to Madison. (78-74)
(1) Texas vs. (5) Tennessee - 3:30 p.m. ET on ESPN
SEC Newcomer vs. Old Guard
Texas Longhorns: Texas stormed into the SEC in 2024-25, tying South Carolina for the regular-season title with a 15-1 conference record. Madison Booker, a first-team All-SEC forward, has been unstoppable, averaging 16.4 points, 6.8 rebounds, and 2.8 assists per game. Rori Harmon (9.3 PPG, 2.3 SPG) anchors the nation’s stingiest defense (55.9 points allowed, 10.4 steals per game).
The Longhorns flexed their muscle in the tournament, crushing William & Mary and then suffocating Illinois with 20 forced turnovers, proving their defensive identity can carry some fluid championship aspirations. Unfortunately, most of the rotations have yet to make a three-pointer. Taylor Jones, Kyla Oldacre, and Aaliyah Moore play almost 60 combined minutes, but opposing defenses have no reason to overcommit on closeouts when that trio catches the ball.
Tennessee Lady Vols: Under first-year coach Kim Caldwell, Tennessee rebounded from a late-season skid to rebuild some confidence. Now, everyone in the starting five (Talaysia Cooper, Jewel Spear, Zee Spearman, Ruby Whitehorn, Samara Spencer) is scoring more than 10 points per game. Tess Darby is on a tear from three-point range lately. The bench trio of Sara Puckett, Alyssa Latham, and Jillian Hollingshead grab over 10 bench boards per game.
A “No Plays Off” approach has helped the Lady Vols bring back memories of Pat Summitt's era of glory. Tennessee, a five seed, advanced with a first-round win over South Florida and an upset of Ohio State in the second, forcing 23 turnovers with relentless defense. This SEC showdown pits Texas’ new blood against Tennessee’s storied legacy, with both teams hungry to assert dominance.
Prediction: The All My Exes Live in Texas tropes get played out, just like the Lady Vols. Texas and it’s not even close. (75-58)
(2) UConn vs. (3) Oklahoma - 5:30 p.m. ET on ESPN
Bueckers vs. Beers Showdown: A Battle of Styles
UConn Huskies: UConn’s 2024-25 season has been a redemption tour for Paige Bueckers, who’s determined to cap her college career with a title after missing 2022-23 due to injury. The Huskies finished 31-3, dominating the Big East despite a lighter conference slate, with Bueckers averaging over 19 points per game. Sarah Strong (16.1 PPG, 8.5 RPG) and Azzi Fudd (13.4 PPG, 45.3% 3PA) bolster a balanced attack.
The Huskies crushed Arkansas State and South Dakota State to reach the Sweet Sixteen, flexing their depth and Bueckers’ playmaking in front of a raucous home crowd. Ashlynn Shade, Kaitlyn Chen, and KK Arnold are playing mistake-free basketball while snatching over 4 combined steals per game. Shade (41.3%) and Chen (37.1%) are crucial floor-spacing three-point threats. If they are on fire, no one is stopping Geno Auriemma’s group.
Oklahoma Sooners: Oklahoma thrived in the SEC during 2024-25, finishing behind Texas and South Carolina using a dynamic offensive approach. Reagan Beers (17.5 PPG, 9.3 RPG) has paired seamlessly with guards Payton Verhulst (14.9 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 4 APG) and Skylar Vann (10 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 2.7 APG), creating a balanced attack that averages over 85 points per game. The Sooners dispatched Florida Gulf Coast in the first round and then outgunned Iowa in the second, showcasing their pace and rebounding prowess.
Grabbing an NCAA Tournament-record 72 boards sent a strong message to the rest of the field: it’s time to roll up the sleeves and get dirty. Hitting shots has been a problem that is more trend than blip. The Sooners have only one player logging more than 15 minutes per game shooting better than 35% from beyond the arc (Beers). Liz Scott (55%) is the X-Factor to watch, especially if UConn can get someone in foul trouble.
Prediction: Bueckers’ perimeter wizardry versus Beers’ interior dominance makes this a clash of styles with Final Four implications. Geno gets it done in the end (72-67).
(1) USC vs. (5) Kansas State
Star Power Dimmed, Upset Alert on Full Blast
USC Trojans: USC’s 2024-25 season was a JuJu Watkins showcase (23.9 PPG) until her season-ending ACL tear in the second round win over Mississippi State. Kiki Iriafen (36 points vs. MSU) and Rayah Marshall (12 points, 9 rebounds vs. MSU) have stepped up in leading USC. Without Watkins, their star power fades, but the Trojans have enough depth to give everyone trouble, especially if Kennedy Smith and Avery Howell are hitting shots.
Kansas State Wildcats: Kansas State’s 2024-25 season turned with Ayoka Lee’s return from injury, pairing with Serena Sundell (around 15 PPG) to upset Kentucky in overtime after beating Fairfield. Their 14-of-35 three-point shooting against Kentucky was no fluke. Kansas State is dangerous and offers a contrast to USC's size. Temira Poindexter and Jaelyn Glenn have a great opportunity to become household names now that Watkins will watch from home.
Prediction: USC holds on for dear life in a defensive slugfest. (61-56)