Dawn. Geno. Longhorns. LA. The 2025 NCAA Women’s Final Four has it all. Hall of Famers. Geographically spread out field. Every Burnt Orange Heart throughout Longhorn Nation. UCLA seeking to make history. Blue Blood programs like UConn and South Carolina, and teams that have more recently begun to knock on the door of greatness, like UCLA and Texas.

So, where do we stand and how will things shake out in Tampa?

UCLA vs. UConn:

A Clash of New Blood and Tradition

The first semifinal pits UCLA, making its first Final Four appearance in the NCAA era, against UConn, a perennial contender in its 24th Final Four under legendary coach Geno Auriemma. The top-seeded Bruins (34-2) have been a force all season, led by 6-foot-7 center Lauren Betts, a dominant presence in the paint averaging 20 points and nearly 10 rebounds per game.

Betts has been unstoppable in the tournament as a two-way force. Those six blocks in the against LSU in the Elite Eight were downright intimidating. Supported by guard Kiki Rice’s playmaking (8.5 assists per game in the tournament) and a deep, versatile roster, UCLA has showcased a balanced attack, shooting 42.5% from beyond the arc in March Madness.

UConn (35-3) counters with a blend of experience and emerging talent. Senior Paige Bueckers, a likely No. 1 WNBA Draft pick, has been the heartbeat of the Huskies, averaging nearly 28 points per game since the postseason began. Her 31-point, six-assist, four-steal, two-block masterpiece against USC in the Elite Eight underscored her ability to take over games.

Freshman Sarah Strong has been better than advertised, ready to take over responsibility for the UConn dynasty. Strong contributed 22 points, 17 rebounds, four assists, and a steal in the win over USC. Azzi Fudd adds perimeter firepower. UConn’s defense, which forced 45 turnovers across its first two tournament games, will disrupt UCLA’s rhythm. How will each adjust to the following adjustments?

Key Matchup: The battle in the paint between Betts and UConn’s relatively inexperienced frontcourt featuring freshmen Strong and Jana El Alfy will determine who is up at halftime. If UCLA is able to exploit a size advantage, it might force Bueckers to carry an even heavier load offensively. However, UConn’s perimeter attack could stretch the Bruins’ defense thin, opening driving lanes and three-point opportunities. Those second half runs that seem to steal all of the momentum are more likely to come from the Huskies.

Prediction

This matchup feels like a toss-up, with UCLA’s depth and interior dominance clashing against UConn’s experience and star power. The Bruins’ lack of Final Four experience could be a factor. History shows it’s rare for a team to win a title without prior exposure to this stage so maybe LA must wait for the experience factor to tilt in their favor. Paige Bueckers, in her fourth Final Four, is on a mission to cap her college career with a championship, and her ability to elevate her teammates gives UConn the edge. Geno gets the clipboard late and clinical execution seals the deal in a thriller.

Prediction: UConn 78, UCLA 72

South Carolina vs. Texas:

SEC Rivals Renew Their Fight

The second semifinal is a familiar showdown between SEC foes South Carolina and Texas, marking their fourth meeting of the 2024-25 season. The Gamecocks (33-3), under coach Dawn Staley, are chasing a repeat title after last year’s undefeated run. Despite three losses this season (UCLA, Texas, UConn), South Carolina has shown resilience, grinding out tight wins in the tournament, including a 54-50 Elite Eight victory over Duke.

But those three wins though…The Gamecocks’ depth is their strength, with freshman Joyce Edwards (12.7 ppg) and MiLaysia Fulwiley (11.9 ppg) providing scoring punch off the bench, while guards Bree Hall and Raven Johnson anchor a stingy defense. Depth may not matter against a top-heavy Texas squad with a bench full of five-stars itching for an opportunity.

Texas (34-3), returning to the Final Four for the first time since 2003, is led by SEC Player of the Year Madison Booker (16.4 ppg, 6.8 rpg). They’ll be looking to lead the first national championship parade through Austin since 1986.

The Longhorns’ suffocating defense, which held TCU to 47 points in the Elite Eight, forces nearly 21 turnovers per game. Point guard Rori Harmon (6.1 assists per game during March Madness) has been a steady floor general, though Texas has struggled offensively against South Carolina, averaging just 53.7 points across their three prior matchups. The Longhorns won in February (66-62), but the Gamecocks took the other two, including a 64-45 rout in the SEC Tournament final.

Key Matchup: Rebounding will be critical. Texas ranks seventh nationally with a 9.1 rebounding margin and outrebounded South Carolina in their February win. The Longhorns are the best offensive rebounding team left and the the Gamecocks were outrebounded by Duke in the Elite Eight. Were those rare lapses Staley can correct or just the first sign the Gamecocks have hit a ceiling? The turnover battle also looms large, as both teams have averaged double-digit giveaways in their head-to-head games.

Prediction

The familiarity between these SEC rivals suggests another low-scoring, physical affair. Texas has the defensive tenacity to hang with South Carolina, but the Gamecocks’ bench depth and ability to adapt in close games, as evidenced by their tournament run, should prevail. Staley’s squad has won two of three this season, and their experience in high-pressure situations tips the scales.

Prediction: South Carolina 62, Texas 58

National Championship Prediction

In a UConn-South Carolina final, we’d see a rematch of their February clash, where the Huskies dominated 87-58. South Carolina has evolved since then, but UConn’s current form—riding a 14-game winning streak with Bueckers playing at an MVP level—is unmatched. The Huskies’ perimeter attack and defensive intensity should overwhelm the Gamecocks, ending their title defense and delivering Auriemma his 12th championship.

Prediction: UConn 75, South Carolina 68